The answer is simple, if VMware is not careful they absolutely will become the next Netscape. That being said, the more I think about this question, the more I can think of ways for VMware to thwart the Microsoft and friends attack. VMware needs to "go to the mattresses" they need to fight back and VMware has the capabilities and so far they seem to have the will and determination to do so.
How, you will ask, can VMware answer back comments such as those made by Oracle CEO Larry Ellison that it will quickly become the next Netscape or comments from the Burton group that its fate will be similar to that of Novell. These comments should not put VMware down, yet they should respond with actions and actions speak much louder than words.
What made VMware so special so quickly? What set them apart and made them the envy of every other company? It was an idea, an innovation. VMware need to continue to beat the competition not by improving their products alone but by innovating them and taking them to the next level and keeping everyone else in a catch up mode. We all know that the fight for the hypervisor is not where the real battle will take place. The hypervisor has already become a commodity. The fight will be over the application virtualization piece and VMware recognizes that and its acquisition of Thinstall shows that the leadership at VMware is aware and taking steps in that direction.
Let's analyze why Novell lost its battle with Microsoft and see if we can learn from this, to make a long story short Novell did not provide an end to end solution like Microsoft did. Novel installed their clients on top of Windows Client OS, that was the major reason for the loss. Microsoft on the other hand provided an end to end solution, even though maybe at the time Novell was a better server solution, they still lost the battle. If we compare the server piece back then to the Hypervisor today and application virtualization to the client piece we see that Microsoft is ahead in terms of application virtualization, but VMware did not make the same mistake as Novell and has acquired a respectable application virtualization solution. Netscape lost because of many reasons but primarily because Microsoft was installing Internet Explorer as part of the OS. VMware's solution does not rely on any Microsoft product, or does it??
At the end of the day Microsoft is king when it comes to applications, and even when virtualizing, we will be virtualizing Microsoft applications and others but the office suite will be among the first to be virtualized.
Here are some suggestions for VMware to help in the battle with Microsoft and company:
Breed an Army of VCPs
VMware needs to relax its certification program. Why you ask? The answer is simple, VMware needs to breed an army that is capable of implementing its technology. It is a known fact if a person walks into a company he would prefer to implement a solution that he knows, he is comfortable with. If VMware continues to force people to take a $3,000 class to be certified, then only few will ever hold the VCP. Don't get me wrong, the class is well worth and the content is among the best I have seen. But my advice to VMware is don't go after the "change money" coming from certification, look at the larger picture, make your exam in such a way that you really measure the candidate's knowledge and if they pass then certify them. If not you will end up with 500,000 Hyper-V and XenServer certified and about 50,000 VMware certified. I know some people will say, well we want quality not quantity, my answer is simple, learn from Novell, Netscape and others mistakes or you will follow them. Put together an exam that measures the knowledge of the candidate, remove the requirement for a mandatory class. These certified people are your assets, are your sales people in the work place.
Innovation: Behold the VMGrid
VMware should continue to innovate, for example, while everyone is trying to catch up with VMware, why not start working on a new idea, to make virtualization GRID aware. So the VMs live on the grid, no matter which host fails, it does not matter, the grid is running. Basically let's virtualize the hypervisor or lets virtualize what makes virtualization possible. Impossible? Why? How many applications can be written to be grid aware? Why is it impossible? A VM that does not rely on the host and that never goes down, now that is something. Just like Seti @ Home but for Virtualization, with 10GB Ethernet cards now available this should be very very possible.
The Allies make all the difference in the world
Partnerships, Google CEO called Yahoo CEO offering help to fight Back Microsoft, VMware should do the same thing, partner with Google and fight back, there is a lot to be learned from the google model. I only mention Goggle here because it has made an attempt to help Yahoo. VMware should seek strategic partnerships and not let itself be isolated.
If VMware can do some of these suggestions and I am sure there are more, they will be able to fight back, but do not underestimate Microsoft or their marketing machine. VMware can and should provide an end to end solution in every one of their products, if at any point you start relying on Microsoft products, that spells out the beginning of the end.
Many reading this will think I am anti Microsoft, the truth is I am very pro Microsoft, and my background is heavy in Citrix, seeing Citrix vs. VMware is a main event that is painful for me, as I love both companies and their technologies. I am in the Microsoft camp but every now and then if Microsoft loses a battle or two, makes them hungrier and I do not want to see a monopoly anywhere as that is not healthy for innovation or competition.
In the final analysis, I don't think VMware will become the next Netscape nor do I believe it will follow Novell. I think VMware will continue to innovate and ironically that innovation will be fueled by the threat that Microsoft will continue to cast.